The hidden dangers of wishful thinking
A GOAL WITHOUT A PLAN... IS JUST A WISH 𫢠Steel yourself: today's letter is a bit of tough love.
In tech and product development, thereâs this thing called ânext feature fallacy.â Itâs basically when the team, under the influence of the CEO, thinks this ONE NEXT FEATURE currently in development is going to change the trajectory of the entire company. Under this belief, once the feature is released, hoards of customers will *finally* rush in to use your product, throw money at you, and spread the gospel of your amazingggg platform.
Nobody knows where the line is between healthy optimism and stupidity.
Iâve seen this trap up-close, because Iâve consulted for various CEOs under the spell of the next feature fallacy. Instead of strategizing and executing a strong go-to-market plan, hiring salespeople, running thoughtful marketing plays and doing normal, common sense shit to make potential customers aware that the product even exists, they tinker with the product to no end and obsesses over every minor detail. Itâs excruciating to watch and even harder to coach out of someone, because in entrepreneurship, âdelusionâ is normalized. Nobody knows where the line is between healthy optimism and stupidity. One may think, âas a founder, arenât I supposed to believe, deep in my gut and against all odds, that my companyâs going to succeed?â
The answer is obviously: yes. But youâre *also* supposed to analyze data, collect evidence, study the competition, and run the strongest, most informed and most thoughtful playbook possible to properly manifest that success.
Anything else is just wishful thinking. Anything else is just catering to your precious, fragile ego. Ignoring the facts on the ground is dangerous - and dare I say, lazy - and itâs probably the #1 way to set yourself up for failure and faceplant on every single one of your goals.
Let me explain.
Iâve been thinking a lot about wishful thinking and how the ânext feature fallacyâ plagues ALL of us, even those of us free from the veiny grip of tech and product development. For the average person, ânext feature fallacyâ is just a fancy word for expert self-deception. It might look like this:
Jen lives in NYC and is perpetually single. She doesnât go on dates or ask her friends to set her up, but endlessly complains because sheâs ready to meet âHer Person.â She decides to move to Austin and tells herself, âIâll finally find a partner and settle down once I get there.â
Adam started a granola company four years ago. He has ongoing supply chain issues and hasnât updated his website in 6 months. He wakes up at noon and works three unfocused hours a day. He barely invests in marketing because after testing a new channel for a week or two, he gives up. Heâs finally decided to upgrade his website and tells himself, âonce this rebrand is done, the sales will come.â
Lenaâs husband is verbally abusive and an alcoholic. He is also unemployed. After going off the deep-end one Saturday, he decides to go to rehab. Lena tells herself, âonce he goes to rehab, everything will be totally fine.â
Jordyn is slightly overweight and their doctor told them to lose weight for health reasons, but they hate the gym. They have a gym in their building, equipped with everything they need. Morning after morning, Jordyn skips the gym and becomes frustrated with themselves. They buy a pair of $200 trainers and tell themselves, âonce these trainers come, Iâll feel motivated to workout.â
The ânext feature fallacyâ in each of these scenarios?
For Jen, itâs Austin.
For Adam, itâs his shiny new website.
For Lena, itâs rehab.
For Jordan, itâs the trainers.
duh.
The moral of the story is: if youâre not making the right choices RIGHT NOW - like, TODAY - youâre not going to make them tomorrow! If youâre not WORKING to FIND your âPerson,â they arenât gonna find YOU! You arenât going to wake up magically motivated to go to the gym! Youâre not going to find your self-respect with some good nightâs sleep! Youâre not gonna stumble into a multi-million-dollar granola company overnight working 3 hours a day!
The moral of the story is: if youâre not making the right choices RIGHT NOW - like, TODAY - youâre not going to make them tomorrow.
In my eyes, subscribing to the ânext feature fallacyâ in your personal and professional life is pure laziness. Iâm sorry to say it. It is the equivalent of squeezing your eyes together real hard and giving an invisible genie your magic wish. Itâs delusional in the worst way. Itâs fantasy. It means youâre too scared to actually try - and fail. Or youâre too proud to realize youâre truly off-course so you can do something about it.
Wishful thinking is extremely dangerous and can prevent you from striving for and reaching your goals because it prevents your brain from feeling FUCKED.
SOMETIMES, WE NEED TO FEEL ROYALLY FUCKED IN ORDER TO KICK OUR OWN ASSES INTO GEAR. WE NEED TO FEEL AFRAID. WE NEED TO FEEL REGRETFUL. WE NEED TO ACCEPT THE FACT THAT OUR DECISIONS ARE NOT SERVING US, AND FEEL SCARED ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY CHANGE.
What has this looked like for me?
Well, in the past, itâs looked like this:
Pivoting my retail-as-a-service company, shutting down ALL of our retail stores in less than one year and laying off our entire retail staff because we learned and ACCEPTED that our business model didnât make any fucking sense. I did not tell myself âthis next store is going to solve everything!â Or âif we close our Series A, itâll all be fine!â No. We looked under the hood. We did the math. And then, we burned it all down.
Ending things with my boyfriend of 6 years because I knew that in short-order, I wanted to marry, start a family, and pool my resources with a partner to start building the financial legacy my family lost when I was 18. I stopped telling myself that once he raised his next round, heâd be ready. Or once I sold Bulletin, we could both refocus on our joint future. None of that happened, because none of that was true. I needed to find someone who shared my objectives, and make a concerted effort every day to meet my match.
Breaking up with my childhood best friend. I kept telling myself that with enough therapy, sheâd resolve her trauma and be less shitty to me. That once she got a job, sheâd be less self-centered and weâd have a wider range of topics to discuss beyond her hookups and endless complaining. Even after years of therapy and finally landing a great job, she still put me down, triggered me and stole my peace. BUH-BYE HONEY.
I just bought $600-worth of my 2021 book, How to Build a Goddamn Empire, wholesale from my publisher. Why? I learned and nailed a Tik Tok seeding campaign for Scent Lab - itâs driving 90% of our sales! - and want to test if I can do the same thing for my book and re-juice my Amazon sales. For months I kept telling myself, âonce I launch perfume, Iâll get to it.â âOnce Iâm building a business again, book sales will naturally pickup.â But I gave myself a brutal, hard look in the mirror. I wasnât DOING anything to generate sales. So, because Iâm a visual person, I ordered a shit ton of books to my apartment that are now staring me down and BEGGING me to GET TO IT.
I challenge you to look at your life and start scratching away to reveal the truths you may be ignoring. Journal out what DELUSIONS you have that are not backed by your own smart, consistent actions, and where you may be clinging to âonce I XYZâ statements. Be particularly on the lookout for âonce they XYZâ statements, too, becauseâŚguess what.. you canât control what other people do, or how they change. You can only control yourself, and how you react to the realities of who they are.
Stop telling yourself that once you have X, or once Y happens, or once you do this ONE thing, everything will change.
Newsflash: no, babe. It fucking wonât.
As the great sage Doja Cat once said: âA goal without a plan is just⌠a WISH.â
So stop wishing. Start planning.
Talk soon,
Ali đ§ââď¸
**Post image by Polly in Wonderland**
You are yelling at me with this one!!! Whew, this newsletter â as they all are was such a necessary read!! Sharing it everywhere
Your book is so good! I am glad that you are letting people know that it is still available for purchase!